Gen McCaffery's Report
I’ve got a guy in
2nd - The point of the
The initial US/UK OIF intervention took down a criminal regime and left a nation without an operational State.
Is this one of those reports that’s targeted for a specific audience? This has the sounds of the “insurgencies is in its last throes”. And yet the death count, both US and Iraqi keeps rising.
January thru September 2006 will be the peak period of the insurgency --and the bottom rung of the new
3rd - The Iraqi Security Forces are now a real and hugely significant factor. LTG Dave Petreaus has done a brilliant job with his supporting trainers.
169,000 Army and Police exist in various stages of readiness. They have uniforms, automatic weapons, body armor, some radios, some armor, light trucks, and battalion-level organization. At least 60,000 are courageous Patriots who are actively fighting. By next summer--250,000 Iraqi troops and 10 division HQS will be the dominant security factor in
Is this really accurate? There are lots of reports of phantom troops, people on the roles who collect a check but never show up to actually do anything.
However, much remains to be done. There is no maintenance or logistics system. There is no national command and control. Corruption is a threat factor of greater long-range danger than the armed insurgency. The Insurgents have widely infiltrated the ISF. The ISF desperately needs more effective, long-term NCO and Officer training.
Finally, the ISF absolutely must have enough helicopter air mobility (120+ Black Hawk UH 60's) --and a substantial number of armored vehicles to lower casualties and give them a competitive edge over the insurgents they will fight. (2000 up-armor Humvee's, 500 ASV's, and 2000 M113A3's with add-on armor package)
Yep, I’ll agree with that. And who’s going to pay for all of that equipment?
4. Top CENTCOM Vulnerabilities:
1st - Premature drawdown of
Wow. That’s a pretty honest assessment.
2nd - Alienation of the U.S. Congress or the American people caused by Iraqi public ingratitude and corruption.
3rd - Political ineptitude of Shia civil leadership that freezes out the Sunnis and creates a civil war during our drawdown.
Yeah, this could get much, much uglier.
4th - "The other shoe" - a war with
5th - The loss or constraint of our logistics support bases in
6th - Open intervention by Iranian intelligence or military forces to support rogue Shia Iraqi insurgency. (Assassination of Sustani-armed rebellion by Sadr)
7th - Continued under-manning and too rapid turnover in State Department inter-agency representation in
8th - Lack of continuity in CENTCOM strategic and operational senior leadership. The CENTCOM military leadership we now have is a collective national treasure.
5. The Enemy Threat:
1st - The Iraqi Insurgency threat is enormously more complex than
There we faced a single opposing ideology; known enemy leaders; a template enemy organizational structure; an external sanctuary which was vital to the insurgency to bring in fighters, ammunition, resources; and relative security in urban areas under Allied/Vietnamese Government control.
We also face a small but violent foreign Jihadist terrorist element. These terrorists do not depend on foreign sanctuary. They can arm themselves with the incredible mass of munitions and weapons scattered from one end of
We must continue to level with the American people. We still have a five
year fight facing us in
FIVE YEARS!!!! And we're going to start pulling troops back next summer? How's that for a little bit of a disconnect? Is anyone in the adminstration even talking about this?
a.. This is the darkness before dawn in the efforts to construct a viable Iraqi state. The enterprise was badly launched --but we are now well organized and beginning to develop successful momentum. The future outcomes are largely a function of the degree to which Iraqi men and women will overcome fear and step forward to seize the leadership opportunity to create a new future.
b.. We face some very difficult days in the coming 2-5 years. In my judgment, if we retain the support of the American people --we can achieve our objectives of creating a law-based Iraqi state which will be an influencing example on the entire region.
c.. A successful outcome would potentially usher in a very dramatically changed environment throughout the Middle East and signal in this region the end of an era of incompetent and corrupt government which fosters frustration and violence on the part of much of the population.
We got into this war for the wrong reasons. We need to finish this war for the right reasons. And I think we are trying. But we just seem to keep shooting ourselves in the foot with the lack of planning and lack of honesty. We need more troops, not less. We need to be honest with the US people and ask them to sacrifice their morning latte to help make a difference in this fight. We really have no choice. If we fail in Iraq, it will only become another Afghanistan hosting scores of radical Islamic jihadits who will threaten the moderate Arab countries in the region. Guess how much your gallon of gas will cost then!